COVID-19 Panic and Fear - A Data Point

With compulsory confinement inside our homes and continuous beaming of updates on Corona statistics on TV channels, one may turn in to a pessimist about the future prospects of our 'normal' lives. To add to this pessimism, there are some experts who predict a sensational number of people getting infected-with and dying due to the pandemic in the near future. So, it is not uncommon for many of us to panic and fear for an uncertain future.

As the cost of any death is too huge to bear and all efforts MUST be made to contain the pandemic that has the potential of causing widespread deaths, the response of most countries of the world to COVID-19 has been on expected lines - saving lives while they can be. This unprecedented consensus in dealing with the pandemic is at a huge economic cost, that world has consciously accepted.

While the steps taken so far are in the right direction, and this piece does not undermine their necessity and importance in any way, it attempts to relate the COVID-19 deaths with that of the world births and deaths data to assess the severity of the present situation.

We live in a planet inhabited by about 7.7 billion humans apart from so many other species that significantly outnumber us. In 1950, the world population was close to 2.5 billion that has prospered and added 5.2 billion (~ 200% of 1950 number) to reach 7.7 billion in 2020. This translates into an average of 75 million additions per year to this planet in the last 70 years.

The rate of births has witnessed a consistent rise over these years as indicated by the chart shown here (Our World in Data). The births have risen from 97.40 million per year in the 1950s to 140.66 million per year in 2020, a rise of more than 44% over these years. As per the projections, the birth rate of ~140 million per year (3,85,000 per day) is likely to remain more or less constant in the coming decades.

Similarly, the number of deaths has also risen from 51.27 million in the 1950s to 56.66 million per year in 2015 and 60.20 million per year (1,65,000 per day)  in 2020, recording an increase of 17.41% over these years. What we need to note here that this death rate is inclusive of all the reasons that may cause it. Hence this death rate includes the past history of pandemics and other diseases that continue to haunt mankind. 

As per an estimate made by the World Health Organisation, the top 10 causes of death in the world are shown in the chart below. It is also estimated that about 54% of deaths worldwide (~ 90,000 per day) are caused by these top 10 reasons. What is interesting to note is that these deaths, caused by well-known reasons, though continue to haunt mankind, have gradually been accepted as 'normal' over the years. We, despite our scientific advancements, are yet to find any permanent cure for them. Besides these health conditions, about 1.35 million people die in road accidents alone every year (3,700 per day) in the world. 

Now let us examine the data related to Coronavirus available up to 13 Apr 2020. The data of 85 days, captured since 22 Jan 2020, indicates the total number of people infected to be 1925 thousand with 120 thousand deaths worldwide (Source: Worldometer). This translates into a ~ 22,600 inflections per day and ~ 1,411 deaths per day and accounts for 0.856% of  1,65, 000 deaths per day. A much higher percentage of 2.12% of the daily deaths are caused by road accidents alone. 

We also need to remember that the present rate of deaths due to coronavirus is under a condition when we do not have any vaccination or known treatment still. Though the development of any vaccine takes many years, given the urgency of the current pandemic, it is estimated that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be available in the next 18 months. In the meanwhile, most of the countries around the world have taken tough measures, even at disproportionately higher economic costs, to contain the spread of the virus. These steps appear to have had some positive effect to flatten the curve indicating a reduction in the number of deaths per day.

So, if the above is true, why is COVID-19 causing so much panic around the world? 

Given the data point, it does not seem to be the number of deaths per day that can justify the panic. However, given its rate of spread and the restrictions that have been imposed to contain it, we are sensing some fundamental changes in our 'normal' lives after the present phase of the pandemic is over. Individuals and businesses alike do fear the new 'normal' and the changes that we shall have to make to our well settled routine to mitigate higher health risks. And probably, this fear of unprecedented changes in our lifestyles and routines, is more responsible for our panic than the deaths caused by the virus.

Lastly, we live in a world of electronic and social media, whose reach is spreading exponentially with each passing day. Unlike the previous pandemics, some of which had even a higher mortality rate, the news of coronavirus is being consumed at unprecedented rates, getting the highest priority in headlines where nothing else appears to be as important. This certainly adds to the panic and fear amongst the locked folks.

Therefore, while the world finds its vaccine in the next few months and COVID-19 settles down in the list of pandemics that the world faced and conquered, we need to step back a little and take a pragmatic approach towards the current situation and avoid panic and fear.

- Prashant